Monday, August 5, 2019

NBA 2019-20 Over/Under Predictions

NBA Over/Unders for the upcoming 2019-20 season surfaced this week. Since I'm terrible with predictions, I'm just going to make my own bets anyway. 

NBA Opening Win Totals
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 55.5 (Over - I expect the Bucks to hit 60 wins again. With Mike Budenholzer coaching, and Giannis continuing to develop, they are going to be tough to beat and should have their way with most Eastern teams). 
  • Philadelphia Sixers: 54.5 (Over - the addition of Al Horford is going to give them a big upgrade in defense and in just smart play. This should be a big year for Ben Simmons to further expand his game. Like the Bucks, they should dominate the East).
  • Houston Rockets: 53.5 (Over - I expect Russell Westbrook will have a big season with the change in scenery. It will take him and Harden at least a full season to start actively hating each other's guts).
  • Toronto Raptors: 53.5 (Under - frankly, I'm surprised it's this high. Without Leonard, the Raptors are still a good team, but 53 is steep. I'm thinking more in the 49 win range).
  • Los Angeles Clippers: 51.5 (OVER - Even if Leonard rests extensively like last season, this team is deep, well coached, has another superstar in Paul George, and they almost hit this win total last year with their packed roster of role players and great bench players).
  • Los Angeles Lakers: 51.5 (Under - because I think injuries and personal dynamics are going to sabotage this team. I am totally aware that this team COULD be the best in the league and this will look totally crazy in hindsight).
  • Brooklyn Nets: 50.5 (Under - Kevin Durant is going to miss the entire season, and Kyrie Irving was miserable playing with better prospects last season).
  • Denver Nuggets: 50.5 (Over - they just need to keep on keeping on).
  • Utah Jazz: 50.5 (Over - the Jazz seem to start slow every year and hit their stride late, so about 51 wins seems right. A healthy Mike Conley is going to help them out too).
  • Boston Celtics: 48.5 (Over - I might be a homer, but if this team can learn to enjoy playing together again, they should be back in the 50-53 win total. Kyrie Irving hurt more than he helped last season, and Kemba Walker puts up similar numbers without the headgames). 
  • Indiana Pacers: 47.5 (Under - Oladipo isn't expected back until December-January. This should still be a good team, but probably .500 without Oladipo).
  • Golden State Warriors: 46.5 (Over - but not by much. This team is going to look radically different this year with only Stephen Curry and Draymond Green returning from their recognizable championship core. Klay Thompson will be back late in the season, I kind of see them in the 48 win range, with Steph's heroics). 
  • Oklahoma City Thunder: 46.5 (UNDER! They are in rebuilding mode and have enough draft picks from trades that they won't feel the need to tank, but I don't think an unhappy Chris Paul is going to be able to lift them to 46 wins in a crowded Western conference).
  • Portland Trail Blazers: 45.5 (OVER! The Blazers are reliably good and their stars are in their prime).
  • San Antonio Spurs: 44.5 (Over, not betting against the Spurs until something drastic happens). 
  • Dallas Mavericks: 41.5 (Under, they're not going to be ready to be a .500 team just yet). 
  • New York Knicks: 37.5 (UNDER! They did not upgrade the roster enough to expect to improve their win/loss by 20 games this season. I know they will likely have lost their appetite for tanking after only getting the third pick last summer, but still).
  • Orlando Magic: 35.5 (Over. This is a .500 team with their current roster and coach, all of whom are returning. Keep an eye to see if Markelle Fultz can make a comeback). 
  • Detroit Pistons: 34.5 (Over, but only because this low number seems harsh. The Pistons are still in the .500 range). 
  • Miami Heat: 34.5 (Over, Jimmy Butler should elevate them to the 40 win range). 
  • Minnesota Timberwolves: 34.5 (Under, they're right back to where they were before the Butler trade. Karl Anthony Towns is putting up empty stats and Andrew Wiggins is happy just to be paid). 
  • Sacramento Kings: 33.5 (Over, they were better than this last year and their young players will be a year older and wiser). 
  • Atlanta Hawks: 32.5 (Under, this is going to be a fun young team to watch, but they were lucky to reach 29 or so wins last year, so 32 seems like a reach). 
  • Charlotte Hornets: 32.5 (Under, I think they're going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. I'm thinking they have less than 20 wins). 
  • New Orleans Pelicans: 31.5 (Under, Zion Williamson should make this a fun team to watch, but this is going to be a total development year).
  • Washington Wizards: 28.5 (Under, this team is going to be awful, even more so when they finally trade Bradley Beal. I expect them to be fully in the tank by January).
  • Chicago Bulls: 27.5 (Over, but not by much. Out of the young, bad teams in the league, I think this one might be most likely to attempt for the 8th seed, and while they won't make it, they'll get some extra wins along the way).
  • Memphis Grizzlies: 27.5 (Under, they will be in the tank. They will be interesting to watch with Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson). 
  • Phoenix Suns: 25.5 (Under, this team will be terrible forever. They will beat my Celtics at least once just to spite me). 
  • Cleveland Cavaliers: 23.5 (Under, I don't think all that highly of their current prospects, and they will find themselves in the tank once again). 

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